[at-l] cummulative elavation gain question

[rcbrooks@acadia.net (RC Brooks)]

> Appalachian Trail Trivia
=SNIP=
> Of the 1,200 hikers who start each year, an average of about 200
> will complete the entire trail, a dropout rate of 84%
> 
> Source: Long Distance Hiking, by retired Harvard physicist Roland
> Mueser.

The gross numbers have significantly changed in the decade since the
above numbers were calculated.  The 16% completion rate is probably
still true (give or take) for Y2K when both NoBo and SoBo hiker stats
are combined; however, the finish rates for SoBo is significantly higher
than that for NoBos.

The numbers I have seen for the Y2K NoBos were:  Springer = about 2,900;
Walasi-Yi = 2,600; Harpers Ferry = 764; finished = 341 or 379 [both
numbers given, I use 382 as 2x382 = 764, a nice round number]

The SoBo numbers I have seen say 226 SoBos had signed the Ranger's
registers at Katahdin as of 8/18/00; 130 had been "mugged and booked" at
Harpers Ferry as of 12/31/00 although I don't find a hiker with a number
higher than 100 (issued Columbus Day weekend) making it to Springer by
12/31/00.  I currently have a list of 77 males and 13 females who
reached Springer before 12/31/00 and another 8 males and 6 females who
stayed on the trail thru the winter and finished in January, February or
March '01. I acknowledge that there may be a few more finishers after
12/22/00 who have escaped me (Debate? Hilltopper?).  Even if one
discards 10% of these 104 identified 'finishers' because it appears 
that they may have skipped part of the trail, you still end up with
93-94 quality thruhikes for a finish rate of 35-40% (94/226=41.6%). [The
numbers above do not include either those completing long section hikes
at Springer or those completing flip-flops at Springer]

I guess the higher finish rate can be explained because Springer is net
downhill from Katahdin.

What the goal is to do is to identify every hiker claiming SoBo
thruhiking status who left Katahdin after 5/17/00 (the opening of
Katahdin for the Y2K SoBos) and identifying what happened to them. 
Whether or not this can be achieved remains to be seen; however, the
SoBo crowd was a much tighter knit crowd than the NoBos so most everyone
knew those in their sector.  The most difficult task will be to find
those lost between Katahdin and Abol Bridge....

HELP!!  If any lister was a Y2K SoBo (or knows a Y2K SoBo) with whom I
have yet to make contact with, please contact me (or have them contact
me).

Bob Brooks