[pct-l] Sierra Snow Prediction - March 22nd

[reynolds at iLAN.com (Reynolds, WT)]

I can make a better prediction after the April 1 snow course measurements
but enough has happened since the March 1 prediction to warrant an update. 
 
Greg "strider" Hummel advocates leaving Kennedy Meadow on, or slightly
before, the date when the snow sensor (UTY) near Forrester Pass reads zero.
I advocate leaving two weeks later. The main difference between us is that
Greg feels that the two week head start is worth the difficulty of dealing
with significant snow and water crossings while I do not. Essentially, both
Greg and I look at the same data and evaluate it the same way.
 
The raw data is this:
1-The snow sensor currenty reads 37 inches. That is less than the 43 inches
it read on this date in 1998 [the last big snow year] but more than it has
read any year since.
2-Current weather forcasts indicate 4 days of light precipitation between
now and April 1. I therefore predict [<-guess] that the April 1 depth to be
40 inches. This is less than 1998 when it hit 46 but 2005 still rates to be
a significent snow year. 
3-The fastest melt in recent history was 2004, last year. The snow started
melting early and kept on melting, turining a significent accumulation into
essentially a low snow year from a thruhiker perspective due to the early
melt. If the same melt occurs this year, and there is no reason to think it
will, the "Zero Snow on the UTY Sensor" day will be about July 4th. If a
normal melt occurs that day will be closer to August 1.
4-Vermillion Vally Resort and Muir Trail Ranch will probably not be open in
June. This is because the Edison Company, under contract with the resorts in
the area, must plow the road by Memorial Day weekend if the snow depth is
below a certain level. It will not be. The road won't be plowed until Edison
gets around to it and its much easier to let the snow melt than plow. Even
if the road is plowed in late June it will take the resorts a week or two to
sort everything out. I am currently predicting that the resorts will be open
for the July 4th weekend, not before.
5-I advise that anyone considering negotiating the snow this year to beg the
powerers that be to pull Jonathan Breem's 1998 journal out of the archeives
so that you can read it carefully.
 
 
The main lesson to be learned from this update is how unreliable any
prediction is. Greg's March 1 prediction was based on a max of 36" snow
depth and an early mely commencing March 15. It didn't happen.
 
Tom Reynolds

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