[pct-l] Annual Sierra Passability Prediction

[reynolds@iLAN.com (Reynolds, WT)]

As everyone who know us both suspects, I not-humbly disagree with Greg's
prediction. 

I agree that the Tyndall Creek snow pillow is the best single predictor of
snow in the Southern Sierra and I agree that this year APPEARS to be
slightly below normal.  I have found, however, that the California weather
pattern has changed somewhat.

In general I see that the early-runoff scenerio has not happened in the last
few years. It seems that cool weather in April and May are delaying the snow
melt about 2 weeks compared to the late eighties and early nineties. I base
this on my analysis of "Runoff Volume in the Sierra" forcasts that appear on
the Internet every year. This forcast predicts the peak and slope of the
rivers cresting. 

Accordingly I say that Greg is about 2 weeks early. June 1 to June 8 is my
prediction. However, I suspect that both Greg and I will have better
predictions in mid-May when we see the slope of the snow melt.

And we both agree that:

Please take this prediction with a heavy dose of salt and note all of my 
numerous caveats.  

YMMV, HYOH, IMHO, DWTWYW (do with this what you will),

Tom

-----Original Message-----
From: Bighummel@aol.com [mailto:Bighummel@aol.com]
Sent: Monday, March 04, 2002 8:48 AM
To: pct-l@backcountry.net
Subject: [pct-l] Annual Sierra Passability Prediction


Here is my bold, presumptuous, annual earliest Sierra passibility prediction

based upon historical snow survey data of the Bighorn Plateau (11,400' 
elevation, just south of Forrester Pass) survey station from present back to

1972.  This prediction assumes that you do not mind walking in some snow and

expect to need an ice axe and in-step or full crampons to cross Forrester
and 
possibly Mather Passes.

This year is currently looking like a slightly below normal year for snow 
pack in the Sierras.  As such, an early melt-off will enable an early entry 
into the Sierras, IMHO.  My guess:  Barring any late, significant snow
storms 
(highly possible) May 15th to 22nd will be the earliest date to enter the 
Sierras without snow shoes or cross-country skis.  

This suggests that if you are an aggressive, well experienced, fast paced 
hiker, you could start your hike at the border around early to mid April in 
order to time your arrival at the southern foot of the Sierras to coincide 
with the snow level retreating to a level of passibility (less than a foot 
over the majority of the trail).  

Please take this prediction with a heavy dose of salt and note all of my 
numerous caveats.  

YMMV, HYOH, IMHO, DWTWYW (do with this what you will),

Greg "Strider" Hummel
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