Re: [at-l] Weather Predictions - Year 2000

[bullard@northnet.org]

At 08:24 PM 12/14/99 -0600, Jim Hipp wrote:
>>The Almanac was correct less than 50% of  the time, a record that the
>meteorologist observed could be matched by  throwing darts at a board with
>weather symbols
>
>The 50% is better than my local TV guy is able to do. Like economists,
>weather-people are better at yesterday than day-after-tomorrow.
>
>I was hiking with Log Jumper going south from Hot Springs when he announced
>that the radio had just given the weather and we would have another party
>cloudy day with the temperatures in the 60s. Within 15 minutes we heard the
>first thunder and in 30 minutes it rained. As I approached Walnut Mountain
>shelter the hail came and I spent 30+ minutes huddled inside having a snack
>and attempting to stay warm. When I left the shelter the ground was white
>from the hail and I would guess the temperature was in the 40s.
>
TV weather forcasts are for the populated areas where folks sit in their
warm homes listening to the radio or more likely watching TV and not for
the mountains. Don't fault them for failing at what they aren't trying to
do. Any meteorologist will tell you that mountains make their own weather
and it is apt not to match the forcast for the valley. They will also admit
to not being able to forcast with any accuracy more than 3 days in advance
and even then only within percentages of chance.

Saunterer

Saunterer
* From the Appalachian Trail Mailing List |  http://www.backcountry.net  *

==============================================================================