[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

Re: [at-l] Is this El Nino?

kahlena wrote:
> 
> Tim Hewitt wrote:
> 
> > For long term weather predictions, I think that the Farmers Almanac is
> > probably as accurate as the Ntional Weather Service. I'm a skeptic until
> > proven otherwise, and quite frankly I've seen little proof that weather
> > forcasting today is much better than it was 10 or 15 years ago.
> 
> Nope...<g>.  Around here the PBS stations run a serious weather program out
> of Penn State.  As a kick.monthly, they review the Almanac's predictions, and
> grade them.  The Almanac averages a D.  And the team from Penn State does
> alot better than that.  My beef is with the commercial TV stations....or at
> least most of them.  They hype even a drizzle into a monsoon all day, just to get
> you to tune in.

I hear that. How many of us have postponed a hike one weekend based on the
prediction of heavy rain, only to find the weekend turned out beautifully, or
even worse, gone out for the weekend to a prediction of clear skies, only to
be rained on all weekend...

> Re El Ninio, ice storms where you are  normal.  But a week+ of 60's here
> in Pa. during Jan is definitely out of whack.  And I find it hard to believe that
> the huge expanse of water involved in the El Ninio phenomena heated to the
> extent it is above what records show is"normal", doesn't have some effect
> somewhere.  And I'm still interested in any info re: summer weather patterns
> in 'El Ninio' years.

The weather experts at the Monterey Aquarium (are there any exports there?)
last fall said that severe drought in the midwest will follow this El Nino.
They were even going to encourage the farmers to plant drought resistant
strains of their crops. The problem with that is if the season is NOT a
drought, these strain of crops will not do well at all, so we may be in for a
food shortage next year... If there is a drought and the farmers plant their
normal crops, we may be in for a food shortage next year...

-Tim
* From the Appalachian Trail Mailing List | For info http://www.hack.net/lists *

==============================================================================