Re [at-l] (Guest Post) Williams Winans Murder

[papabear.nyc@xxxxxxxxxxx (Papa Bear)]

>Most everytime this topic has come up you see a chorus of very experienced
>hikers sharing how safe the AT is.  It is said that one is more likely to
be
>murdered in thier home town than out on the Trail.  For some time now I
have
>been bothered by those comforting reports when I consider the fact that one
>THRU HIKER has been murdered for every 1500 THRU HIKERS that report >to
have
>hiked the entire AT.
>
>Rick B

Rick

I think you may have unintentionally biased your figures by selecting a
sample with no real basis.  The number is seven AT hikers murdered
(including the 2 on the side trail who merely used the AT to get there).
The fact that all of them, or 5 of them, or 3 of them were thru-hikers
doesn't mean that it makes any sense to compare this number with that of
completed thru-hikers.

Why are completed thru-hikers the right target population?  Why not all
attempted thru-hikers (a factor of 10 more)?  After all the murdered hikers
did not complete their hikes.  I would doubt very much that murderers are
selecting hikers to kill on the basis of whether or not they are
thru-hikers.  Much more likely they were at the wrong place at the wrong
time.

I would hazard a guess (and all of this is guesswork) that overnight campers
on the AT might be a more likely target population (since they would tend to
be out late at night or overnight when many crimes occur).  That target
would include all thru-hiker attempts and section hikers.  A vastly greater
number than you imply.  Probably in the millions over the time period
involved.  And remember the murders happened in Georgia, Tennessee, Virginia
and Pennsylvania.  A distinctly southern bias where there are MANY more
hikers on the trail, thru- or otherwise.

The ATC quotes a rate of 1 in 13 - 17 million.  I suspect if you eliminate
day hikers that don't hike very far would reduce that by half at least.  And
as I said, just overnighters would probably be down in the 1 - 2 million
ranges.  Still a MUCH MUCH  lower ratio than 1 in 1500.

I think 7 murders on the AT is 7 too many, but I think the ratio is still
much lower than being just about anywhere else.

Pb