Re: [pct-l] Lightweight Packs

["Tom Reynolds" <Tom.Reynolds@ilan.com>]

Your math is at least as bad as mine {and at least I have an excuse - I had
a couple of drinks}

1. The probability of a bear showing up is 6/200 or 3%.
2. Every 3 nights of 4 the food is not hung.
3. The probality is .75% or 75 of 1000 nights, not 75 of 10,000 [i wish you
were right]
4. At 30 or 29 (this is an estimate anyway) the probality is 22.5% for a
JMT rate hiker [.0075 x30 x100]
5. At 17 or 18 (again an estimate) the probility is 12.75% [.0075 x 17 x
100]

I have not met one Sierra hiker, not one, who told me how he successfully
hung his/her food. [meaning, as you said your wife did, the counter balance
defeated the bears. Is that true? What you say is that the counterbalance
gave your wife time to scare off the bears. That's what the NPS said in
1990 -- the year of your wife's hike. It's not true in Yosemite, in the
Kearsarge Area and a few other areas anymore. The NPS says you will lose
your food.]

There are thousands of hikers who don't carry a canister. However they use
a bear box and/or are lucky. One year in Yosemite between the Valley and
Tolumne meadows everyone we met had a bear horror story.

You don't hunt along the 300 miles I am talking about. It is mostly
National Park. Fortunately, most eastern access trails are still largely
bear free. According to the Rangers, they feed the bears too well in the
National Parks.

You don't know thousands of people fight off the bears every year. You are
just guessing. That's an opineon. A 10 year survey where I ask people about
their experience with bears is data.


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