[pct-l] How We Learn Stuff

[Bighummel at aol.com (Bighummel@aol.com)]

I've been keeping out of this one as I am a bit biased on this subject 
(global warming) being a geologist.  Geologists have derived a fairly detailed 
record of the earth's temperature over the past several tens of thousands of years 
through ice cores, over the past several 100's of thousands of years through 
marine micro fossil studies and over the past millions of years through other 
means.  Each of these offer a lessening and lessening amount of detail, i.e., 
the most recent records are the most detailed.  

>From the detailed accounts that I have seen, this warming trend is;

1) VERY short term relative to other records of similar events, and,

2) not unprecedented in speed of warming or magnitude of warming.

An alarm was sounded a decade or more ago when ice cores showed that the last 
true ice age came on in a matter of years, not decades or centuries as was 
postulated previously.  In other words the temperature needed to initiate an ice 
age could come about before 2010.  Thus if this could happen then certainly 
the opposite too.  

Did WE cause this?  Human arrogance has put us at the center of the universe, 
at the center of our solar system and in other rather embarrassing positions 
over the coarse of history.  I rather suspect (note: "suspect") that this is 
the case too.  

One thing that geologists understand very clearly is that the ongoing 
processes that drive this world, rock, wind, weather, water, fire, etc., are 
extremely complex and the interaction of these processes are not well understood yet.  
  Predicting the weather for next year is similar to predicting how this 
molecule or that may shift the atmospheric temperatures.  IOW, "I don't know, but 
let's assume we are causing it 
and try to do something about our contribution" is my position. 

Sorry to further the confusion on this most volatile issue.

Greg