[pct-l] NOAA Long Term Climate Predictions

[bjr214 at psu.edu (Ben Racine)]

http://tinyurl.com/qvta

 

I thought this long term prediction put out by NOAA was interesting,
considering its possible effects on next year's season.  I know it's
very early to be making predictions, but maybe if we can all remember
this 12 months from now, we can learn whether or not they're fantastic
at what they do. or if weather is too complex a beast to behave for us
(my money's on the latter. but time will tell).

 

Anyways, (in my amateur lingo) I have tried to summarize what I notice:

 

1.	The west will be dry right now and for the next couple of
months.  This may counteract last winter's still lingering moisture for
this season's surge to Canada (although it doesn't look like the effects
reach all the way to the North Cascades). 
2.	Looks like equal amounts (compared to annual averages) of
precipitation should occur over the bulk of fall/ winter/ early spring
so this appears to be a good sign.  
3.	Through May and June Northern California all the way to the
northern border should be experiencing higher than average
precipitation.  But, a 2006 thru-hiker won't be that far north during
those months. so the effects of that will be indirect.  Perhaps more
Oregon mosquitoes though ?
4.	July should be normal.
5.	August and September should be on the dry side.  This combined
with an average July may possibly counteract the wet May and June.
6.	This means that a thru-hiker shouldn't see any non-average
conditions.  The early moisture in the northern half of the trail may be
counteracted by the dry spell that occurs during the actual time of
frame of hiking through.

 

Just thought I would go fishing to see what people might notice or
conclude from what they see here.  I just studied the precipitation, not
the temperature (in conjunction).  Corrections to my summary more than
welcome.  

 

Thanks ahead of time everybody,

Ben