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[pct-l] Snow Update 5/23/1005



Talked to someone today who was in Onion Valley this past weekend. The road 
is plowed all the way to the campground, but from there on its mostly snow 
covered. She said the snow was really soft(thigh deep postholing) by 9am. I 
will be heading up there this weekend to make an attempt at University Peak, 
which should also give me a good view of the Bubbs Creek drainage and 
Forester Pass.  I will report back with conditions update.
Also my friend and I have been having dialogue off and on with Jim Clemens, 
the owner of VVR. He has been up and down from the resort all winter long on 
his snow mobile. While I'm not sure what the status of resupply boxes and 
the store's stock are I will see if I can find out from him. Good luck to 
those early birds.
Eric J Lee
PS Here is a link to Onion Valley(Kearsarge Pass) Pics
http://community.webshots.com/album/351685353lQoAcm

>From: "Reynolds, WT" <reynolds@iLAN.com>
>To: "Reynolds, WT" <reynolds@iLAN.com>,"'dsaufley@sprynet.com'" 
><dsaufley@sprynet.com>,'The Weathercarrot' 
><weathercarrot@hotmail.com>,"'pct-l@mailman.backcountry.net'" 
><pct-l@mailman.backcountry.net>
>CC: "'Bighummel@aol.com'" <Bighummel@aol.com>
>Subject: [pct-l] Snow Update 5/23/1005
>Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 18:36:19 -0700
>
>I received a call from the presumed leaders. They were in Tehachapi,
>planning to make Kenney Meadows 5/31. They reported that most thruhikers 
>are
>walking the road as opposed to walking the trail and plan to flip-flop.
>Mountaineers from England they, however, are purists and have stayed on the
>trail.
>
>They asked about the status. The status is as follows.
>
>All rivers will crest this weekend. However, the shape of the crest is much
>different. In the north [Yosemite and above] the flow will drop off
>dramatically after this weekend. In the south there is not much difference
>between this weekend and next weekend. They asked if waiting 10 days would
>make a difference in the stream crossings. Reviewing the crossings between
>KM and VVR in my mind, I thought not. I advised them to press on. [With
>crampons 100% snow is better than mixed ground] I also advised Ski
>Mountaineer's Pass. The current snow melt forcase is dated 5/18. The new
>forcase should provide much better info on snow melt and river volumes.
>
>Per my prediction, VVR is closed. VVR claims that they will snow mobile in
>and be available for thru hikers. If not, they need to hike out over
>Kearsarge. I agreed to determine the status of the Kearsarge Pass and
>Mammoth roads this weekend. If necessary I will drive to Kearsarge to 
>supply
>them next week.
>
>Snow on the UTY snow pillar is still 39". However, temperatures have been
>well above freezing 1/2 the day. The high altitude melt should start soon.
>
>Tom
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Reynolds, WT
>Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2005 11:27 AM
>To: 'dsaufley@sprynet.com'; 'The Weathercarrot'; Reynolds, WT;
>'pct-l@mailman.backcountry.net'
>Subject: RE: [pct-l] snow comparisons
>
>Donna's question will take some research. I can, however, answer The
>Weathercarrot
>
>The process I use compares the snow on the UTY snow pillar for various
>years. Both Greg and I use this indicator necause it is the best indicator
>of the snow accumulation in the high southern passes. The second best
>indicator IMHO is Bishop Pass.
>
>On April 1, what I did was pick snow years where there was considerable 
>snow
>at this location. They, in fact corresponded with the high snow years that
>you indicated. I then graphed the melt on UTY using data on 3/1, 4/1, 5/1,
>6/1 and 7/1. My conclusion on April 1 was that there was generally zero 
>melt
>between April1 and May 1. Only in 1997 did an April melt occur in a big 
>snow
>year. In every other year a slower than normal melt followed a big snow
>year.
>
>On May 1, I checked the actual UTY [and other] snow pillars and found that
>my April 1 analysis was correct. There had been zero melt on UTY. In fact
>the temperature rarely reached freezing. At this point I threw out the 1997
>early melt data and focused on the others. In all cases the slop of the 
>snow
>melt after May 1 was less than normal. Using that data I predict the day
>where there will be zero snow on the UTY snow pillar as July 12. In 1995
>that date was July 11 and in 1998 it was July 24 according to my
>predictions. Checking the historical record I find my predictions accurate
>within a day.
>
>After May 1 everything depends on the weather. I am now using "Forecast of
>Runnoff Volumes" as my predictor of how fast the snow will melt.
>Unfortunately I have only looked at this data since 1998. Using weather 
>data
>this report tries to predict when the peak melt will occur. The report is
>updated every 5 days and uses the weather forcast to predict the melt for
>the next 10 days. Let me say simply that this could be a very bad year.
>Also, let me say that the southern mountains will continue to be daunting
>because we are looking at cold, wet weather for the next 10 days and very
>little melt is likely to occur.
>
>To specifically answer The Weathercarrot's question, 2005 looks very much
>like 1995 at this point.
>
>Date		05/05		06/01		07/01		UTY zero day
>2005		40
>1995		39		31		11		7/12
>1998		45		40		25		7/23
>1983		65		57		35		7/23
>1993		30		17		0		6/28
>
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