[pct-l] RE: Sierra Snow Prediction - March 1st

[reynolds at iLAN.com (Reynolds, WT)]

Greg-
 
Look out your window man, its raining! If this ain't an El Nino Year what
is?
In fact the snow accumulation for the various river basins is:
 
Kern [Kennedy Meadows through Forrester Pass] is 145% of April 1 normal.
163% of March 1 normal
Kings[Forrester Pass through Muir Pass] is 144% of April 1 normal, 164% of
March 1 normal
San Joacquin [Muir Pass through Island Pass] is 154% of April 1 normal, 177%
of March 1 Normal
 
Those readings were taken in late February and it has rained about an inch
in LA since then. To be below 150% of normal on April 1 is about as likely
as UCLA winning the NCAA Tournament or Tom Reynolds thruhiking the
trail--like zero man!
 
It should be noted that Greg Hummel likes snow and goes playing in it every
chance he gets, usually the Ritter Range, while Tom Reynolds, on the other
hand, hates snow and sees it as an excuse to go SCUBA diving in warm water.
Our goal here is to show prospective thruhikers the wide range of opinions
and remind them that "hike your own hike" means taking responsibility for
it, not relying on so called experts.
 
Tom Reynolds

  _____  

From: Bighummel@aol.com [mailto:Bighummel@aol.com] 
Sent: Friday, March 04, 2005 1:50 PM
To: reynolds@iLAN.com; pct-l@backcountry.net
Cc: skygeorge@earthlink.net; jstewart01@fs.fed.us
Subject: Re: Sierra Snow Prediction - March 1st


Oh, Tom,
 
Sorry man, your assumption that this is an El Nino year is not corroborated
by the Pacific ocean currents, the accumulations of precipitation, etc.,
etc.  It may be a mild El Nino, but it aint no full blown El Nino.  
 
As such, your assumption that there will be abundant late Spring
accumulations are only supported by historical information to the tune of
20%, even in El Nino years.  Check out the historical information on the
snow survey sites and do your statistical homework before making
unsubstantiated assumptions.  
 
At least my assumption that Spring will bring a rapid meltoff is based upon
the flip side of that statistic; 80%.  Equally flippant assumption, however
based upon higher quality - flimsy information.
 
Isn't making predictions fun?  No one is right and you can argue until you
are blue in the face, twisting the statistics this way and that to make your
own points, but in the end the fat lady, Mother Nature, gets to sing her
tune the way she intends, regardless.
 
Oh, and Tom and I have these in-your-face, pseudo heated arguements every
single year, primarily for YOUR benefit, to show you that in order for you
to successfully get through the Sierra as early as possible, you really have
to do your own homework, believe no one and keep re-doing it until you reach
Kennedy Meadows.
 
Best regards and kisses,
 
Greg
 
In a message dated 3/4/2005 1:27:31 PM Pacific Standard Time,
reynolds@iLAN.com writes:

This is an El Nino year. It is very likely that more rain hits and the
Southern Sierra hits 150% of normal on April 1 as opposed to 80% of normal
last year. That's double the snow man, double. Further the El Nino tends to
extend the cold weather and make for a much later melt than normal such as
1998.