[pct-l] Sierra Snow Prediction - March 1st

[Bighummel at aol.com (Bighummel@aol.com)]

Well, here it is, March 1st, and the Sierra snow levels are interesting.  
Central and Northern Sierra survey sites are closely tracking last year's levels, 
while the Southern Sierra sites are tracking significantly above average.  

At Upper Tyndall Creek survey there is currently 29.5 inches of snow depth.  
This falls significantly above the historical values for this date and 
therefore suggests that we will have a slightly later meltoff than normal.  Looking 
at years with similar amounts of snow at this date and averaging their "zero" 
snow level days, I come up with June 18th as the most likely zero snow level 
day at this snow survey site and a good Sierra - Kennedy Meadows entry date to 
aim for.  

Now, the caveats;
- I recommend entering the Sierra when there is a bit of snow left and even 
solid snow and ice above 11,000 or 12,000 feet.  

- The level of snow in the Southern Sierra may not be accurately portrayed by 
this snow survey site, even though it is at high elevation (11,400') and very 
near the PCT.

- When this site says "zero snow" there may be considerable snow elsewhere; 
on north facing slopes, in canyons, in forests, at higher elevations, etc.

- You should have an ice axe and know how to use it in order to cross the 
high passes if you enter the Sierra under these conditions. 

- You should be comfortable with, and experienced and equipped for, camping 
and hiking in light snow and ice conditions.

- There is a roughly 20% chance of a significant late Spring storm that can 
extend the "zero snow" entry date significantly.

- Your Mileage May Vary

- Snow conditions / rates of accumulation / rates of meltoff will likely 
change (i.e. keep monitoring the snow conditions before you get to Kennedy Meadows)

- This prediction of an entry date into the Sierra is based upon what I would 
be doing at this point in the Winter to guestimate when I would plan to start 
my hike.  Notice the words "I" and "my".   Your methods to guestimate your 
start date at the border are also equally valid.

- Only 30 years of historical records are available for a limited number of 
snow survey sites in the Sierra.  This is a miniscule number statistically.  
The number of years that are similar to this year is even smaller.  Making a 
prediction based upon one or two snow survey sites utilizing the information from 
just a few years is recognized as irresponsible, simplistic and stupid.

- Note the word "aim" NOT "plan".  Your plan should be flexible and 
constantly changing to accomodate the latest and best information that you are able to 
come by.

- Predictions in mid-May will be much more accurate.

THEREFORE, you should take this prediction in the light that it is presented; 
A wild assed guess!  Use your own good judgement and as many additional 
information sources as you can find, and, frequent updates on the conditions in the 
southern Sierra as you hike towards it in Sth Calif.

Best regards,

Greg "Strider" Hummel

P.S.  ttthhhsssssss . . . Tom!