[pct-l] snow pack between Tuolumne Meadows and Lake Tahoe

[steve_peterson at sbcglobal.net (Steve Peterson)]

Bighummel@aol.com wrote:

> My prediction is for someone who can handle my definition of passable and has 
> experience along these lines and is willing to carry the gear to insure 
> safety.  If your definition is different, then a later entry date into the Sierra 
> will mean a different set of conditions with a different set of pros and cons.

Right, but that begs the question: How much later should one go, if one has no 
desire to climb a 15' wall of ice? What's needed, it seems to me, is some way 
for a person to determine how much snow would be encountered given X" of depth 
on the snow pillow (and, perhaps even, Y days since the pillow read "0"). That 
way each person could make an informed decision based on his/her own criteria.

Since I haven't been successful in coming up with a way to correlate depth of 
snow on the trail itself with snow pillow readings, my approach is similar to 
NASA's: make a gross initial estimate, then refine it as info becomes available. 
NASA doesn't aim for the moon exactly, but starts out approximately on target 
and makes mid-course corrections as the trip progresses. That's what I'm 
planning to do. My first approximation will be based on the April 1 depth. That 
will be a go/no-go decision which will be "no go" if it's a really heavy snow 
year. Then toward the end of April, I'll make another decision that affects my 
exact start date. Then on May 30, I'll make another decision based on the depth 
at that time--I'll delay a few days if the snow is lingering longer than I'd 
like. The final decision (or what I hope will be the final decision) will come 
at KM. At any of those points (or at any point along the way, I guess) I'll just 
hang out a few extra days if the snow ain't cooperating.

In other words, since a later decision will likely be a more informed decision 
(and hence likely to be more accurate), and I have no constraints (like a 
pre-purchased airline ticket) forcing me to make an early decision, I'm planning 
to put off the decision as long as possible.


> 
> The entire focus of my prediction is to simply put myself into the shoes of 
> someone wanting to thru-hike and attempting to pick the earliest start date 
> that will get me through the Sierra.  Forester was the scariest thing that I had 
> ever seen in May of 1977 (15 foot vertical wall of ice, 300 foot exposure), 
> but now I have climbed much more serious things and would be much more 
> comfortable and equipped facing the same conditions again.
>