[pct-l] Re: 2003 Snow Levels

[Bighummel@xxxxxxx (Bighummel@xxxxxxx)]

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Glen writes:
"Are you still in the snow level prediction business for the PCT? If so, is
it too early to get an idea of what to expect for 2003?"

Dear Glen,

I'm really jealous that you're going to thru-hike this year.  I can't this
year, maybe in a few more, so, instead I'll send something along with you;

My 2 cents on the snow situation in the High Sierra.  First, this is a weird
weather year.  The month of January in Sth Calif. was the warmest since 1976
with temps in the 80's and 90's all but wiping out the snow in the local
mountains.  The southern Sierra, south of Forrester Pass has seen similar
weather.  The Sierras got several heavy, early storms that made it look like
it was going to be an above average year.  Since December, though, almost
nothing new has dropped south of Mammoth.  There is generally less than a
foot of snow on any of the South Sierra snow guages.  If I had to guess right
now I would say that this looks alot like 1977, the driest year on record in
the last 30 years of records.  However, making a guess now is risky as Februa
ry and March are typically the wettest months.  So, the jury is still out.

Now, suppose that we get a few good typical February and March storms.  They
will fall on dense ice and wet snow and if it is cold enough, a few feet may
stick around.  These storms would have to be unusually heavy in order to make
up for a mostly zero January (unlikely, but, then, this is a weird weather
year!).  So, I would put my money on it being a relatively normal meltoff
year when you would want to arrive at the southern end of the Sierras about
June 1st to 15th.  It's likely to melt off sooner and if it does then you
have erred on the safe side.  If your snow abilities are really good and you
don't mind putting up with a bit of the white stuff, then you might risk
leaving a bit earlier, intending to hit the Sierra in late May, early June.
Snow storms can hit in May and June, though.  Be a good Boy Scout. :-)

YMMV, IMHO, Only My 2 cents, no liability implied, etc., etc.

Greg