[pct-l] Flamed

["William M. Stenzel" <manjovin@jps.net>]

Thank you for the photo, Brick. I have my own photos of the High Sierra (not online)
showing socked in passes, Thousand Island lake completely frozen in late June, etc.

    Okay, I'm pretty upfront about having eccentric ideas about the right time to
hike, and for all you scientists out there, I'll be trying them out this year. What I
do find funny is how even scientists take time out to flame me personally when I share
my eccentric ideas -- this has happened several times this year already.

So..."I don't know
your experience with snow and how comfortable with hiking in it you are.
Similarly, if you, yes you on the list, are not comfortable, capable,
equipped for and mentally prepared for a late spring storm, then you
shouldn't be anywhere Kennedy Mdws right now either."

    Okay, how's this for props: I hiked from Kennedy Meadows to Tuolumne Meadows last
year in early June with no resupply. I was the first hiker through, dutifully
following my Jardine-ite schedule. (I thought you knew this.)
    Comfortable? I run ultras. I used to climb 5.11. Climbed peaks in Alaska in
winter. And those two weeks of hiking in mainly snow ripped me apart. Postholing
sucks. Now -- you can show me a lot of snow numbers for that period that talk about
low snow base, unseasonally warm conditions, etc. All I know is that is snowed on me
over a foot and a half near Edison Lake, completely covering the trail and making
navigation a nightmare. In fact, it snowed every afternoon for a week.
       I dislike long periods of snow travel -- if you started the trail already, and
you plan to stick to a brisk pace, arriving in the Sierra in early June, you will face
a lot of snow travel.

This summer, I will be in a good position to watch the conditions along the Muir
Trail. For the past three years (the three years I've lived reasonably close to the
trail), predictions of early season snow have been consistently wrong, erring on the
side of optimism and stuck in the early-80's drought mentality -- ie, "I gotta cross
the desert fast and early in the season." Snow predictions for the end of the season
have also been consistently wrong -- this year, I hiked up from highway 108 in late
November: no snow. In early December there was still only a few feet of snow, and only
in places. Why? I noticed that, this year, when big early snow predictions failed to
materialize, Gov. Davis tacked on a few billion dollars of water works projects to the
year's budget. Maybe a coincidence, eh?
    Anyway, I think the chances of getting socked with a storm in June are the same as
getting socked with a storm in November, at least in the current weather cycle. It can
happen.  I'm going to hike around the PCT as late as I can and see when the easiest
and most pleasant time to hike trail is.

If I'm wrong about all this, then I'm wrong. I haven't lived in California all that
long. But please don't flame me just because I have different ideas than you.

will

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