[pct-l] weather thoughts.

["William M. Stenzel" <manjovin@jps.net>]

All right, after getting everyone amped up about hiking poles, I'm back to talk
about weather.
    It's there in all our threads, it ties up the hopes and dreams of every
thru-hiker -- and I'm trying to understand Sierra weather.
    So, I've spent this winter about three miles from the PCT and I'm looking out
the winter at...a misty rain. They hyped up another big Sierra winter storm, and
again nothing is happening. I've heard the ski areas wail for snow -- I've seen
the 28%--of--normal statistics, but why does this remind me of last year? Last
year when the high Sierra were seriously deficient on snow until I had finished my
planning and was heading out on the trail. Then the big storms hit one after
another until my tent is crushed under a foot and a half dump in -- June?! And I
went for day hikes all fall and saw that the trail was pretty much dry until
mid-November. Even now, the snowpack is comprable (if less compacted) to what I
saw in May, 1999.
    So I have this weird idea...so we have the notion that winter starts on
November 15, when all the little roads heading up into the Sierra close, and big
winter storms immediately start lashing the area. These storms let up around March
or April, about the time most thru-hikers start their journies. My June or July,
when these hikers reach the big mountains, the storms have long since stopped, and
most of the winter snowpack has melted. By August, though, some storms return, and
you'd better be out of Dodge by early September. That's conventional thinking. But
after spending a few years messing around on the PCT, the weather is more like
this: by November, the mountains are bitterly cold and windy, and there may be a
little snow. In December, winter starts winding up, and the Ski areas begin to
lament that they will all close forever and fire all their workers if there isn't
more snow this season. Then Sacramento can lament that there will be no water for
farming this year, and we can put off making the big corporate farmers pay for the
water they use for just one more year because this year, there's a really big
water crisis! In February or March, the big storms arrive, farmers rejoice, the
skiiers are happy, and the PCTA mailing list is flooded with panicked questions
about weather. "Can I hike 22 miles a day with snow shoes?" In May and June,
winter winds down with occasional storms, and finally the bugs die down in late
June and early August.

    So what would happen if you started a South to North thru-hike in early July?
You'd swelter in the desert, I figure, but you'd be able to live off the abandoned
food in all the hiker boxes. You'd reach the Sierra by August, and Oregon by
September. Washington would be dicey at best, but you could always come back to
finish some miles next August, right? Or maybe start in Manning park in July? Then
you'd get the summer Sierra and fall in the desert -- beautiful.

This year could be the drought year when everyone can bust up the trail with
ultralight gear and no snow (or bug) worries. I would not be surprised, however,
if the Sierra surprise yet again.

will


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