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Re: [at-l] Is this El Ninio?
I am an operational meteorologist (MS Meteorology Texas A&M) with the national
Weather Service (Meteorologist in Charge of the Honolulu HI Forecast Office)
and I would like to clarify some of the original questions and the three other
posts concerning the El Nino and meteorology.
1. El Nino. Is it real? Ask the people in Guam that just got hit with super
typhoon Paka that formed in the warm water south of Hawaii and moved halfway
across the Pacifc and produced winds of over 170 MPH. Ask the people of
Indonesia with extreme drought conditions that have produced devastating
forest fires. Ask the people of Papua New Guinea where over 1/4 of the
population is at risk of starvation because of drought. Ask the people on the
Big Island of Hawaii who depend upon catchment systems for water who are now
starting to feel the effects of drought in Hawaii. Ask fishermen in South
American whose livelihoods are in jeopardy because the fish have moved because
the water is too warm. Is it real, I believe so.
Also, has it been meteorologists who have blamed El Nino for many wierd
things--no. It has been the media or others. The scientists know fact from
fiction. Many people have benefitted from the early notification of El Nino
related possibilities. People have planned for more hurricane/typhoon
activity in the Pacific, they have planned for drought by planting drought
resistant plants, they have strategically place fire fighting equipment, they
have fixed dikes to prevent flooding. This forecast has saved thousands of
lives and hundreds of millions of dollars of property damage. In 1982-1983
over 4000 people died and $11.8 Billion damaged due to El Nino related items.
It maybe funny to Jay Leno, but life or death to others.
2. Weather Forecasting. Weather forecasting has become a science not an art.
With highly skilled people and sophisticated equipment, the forecast is over
90% accurate across the US. The long range forecast is becomming much more
reliable. We have forecasted big winter storms days in advance allowing
people to plan and take protective action. The governor of one of the mid-
Atlantic states actually declared a state of emergency before a single flake
of snow fell last year or the year before based on the forecast. When over 20
inches of snow fell, lives were saved because of this forecast.
The mission of the National Weather Service is to issue warnings and forecasts
to protect lives and property. We take this mission very seriously. It is a
great deal of reponsibility to determine whether to issue a tornado warning or
not with hundreds or thousands of lives may be a risk? And whether you were
right or wrong will be debated in the press and media afterwards.
Are we always right--no. It is not a perfect science yet. Are we getting
better--you bet!! We show skill out to 13 months--documented, written skill,
unlike that claimed by the Farmer's Almanac and others.
Thanks for listening. This is not a flame but information to use. As you can
see I'm somewhat sensitive to this. But trying to change. That's why my
trail name is Positive Weatherman. If you are interested in long range
forecasts for the coming year please send me a private email and I'll let you
know where you can find the information. Aloha and Mahalo.
jim
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