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[at-l] El Nino and Seasonal Forecasts

For seasonal forecasts for the next year check
http://fb4.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13seasonal_outlooks

This shows for the AT area
Dec-Jan-Feb: 
   Temp:  Above normal N of Mason-Dixon line-Near normal elsewhere
   Precip:  Near normal or insufficient skill
Jan-Feb-Mar
  Temp:  Above normal MA and northward-below normal central VA and south
             Near normal in between
  Precip:  Near normal 
Feb-Mar-Apr
  Temp:  Below normal VA and south- Near normal elsewhere
  Precip:  Near normal
Mar-Apr-May
  Temp:  Below normal GA and SC - Near normal elsewhere
  Precip:  Near normal south of PA- below normal elsewhere
Apr-May-Jun
  Temp:  Below normal GA and SC - Near Normal elswhere
   Precip: Near normal

El Nino Conditions normally produce wetter and cooler than normal in SE US
and
warmer and drier than normal conditions in the NE US during the winter and
spring months.  However as Sean pointed out, these are the likelihoods.  If
you were a betting person, the odds would be in your favor if you were to bet
on these outcomes.  But by all means they are "not a sure bet."

For addition El Nino information see:

http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov
http://naulu.soest.hawaii.gov
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/el-nino/home.hmtl

Also FEMA.gov also has extensive El Nino information but I forget the exact
address.

Ira:  Sorry that it took so long to respond.  With the new thread I thought I
would post it for everyone.

Jim Weyman
Meteorologist in Charge, Honolulu HI Forecast Office
Director, Central Pacific Hurricane Center
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