[at-l] Downward Trend on the AT

[jbullar1 at twcny.rr.com (Jim Bullard)]

My point was that perhaps some people who would otherwise have finished 
have been discouraged from even trying.  "I would rather something and fail 
than to attempt nothing and succeed"

At 03:32 PM 10/31/2005 -0400, Art Cloutman wrote:
>Exactly!!!!    If you are well informed you are less likely to attempt 
>something you are not likely to finish.  Therefore,  the number of people 
>that attempt a thru hike is down.  And the number that finish is down but 
>the percentage of those succeeding is up.
>
>Gabby
>>Yeahbut... Starters are down *and* finishers are down. So... if the 
>>completion rate (starter:completer ratio) is up that suggests that some 
>>who might have completed a thru-hike, because they are better informed of 
>>the difficulty, have been discouraged from attempting a thru.
>>
>>At 07:40 AM 10/31/2005 -0400, Art Cloutman wrote:
>>>The numbers are down but the success rate is up.  I believe more people 
>>>are well informed of what it takes to do a thru hike.  So, those that 
>>>attempt a thru have a better chance of success.  And a lot of other 
>>>people draw the conclusion that they will not succeed so do not 
>>>attempt.  People on the trail in 2004 seemed extremely well informed 
>>>about light weight gear, pace, weather, food.  Many sections hikers and 
>>>weekend hikers seemed to have a better idea of what long distance hiking 
>>>is about.  I really belive the internet plays a major part in the higher 
>>>success rate and lower starting rate.
>>>
>>>Art
>>>
>>>>I was looking at the ATC website and has anyone else noticed that the 
>>>>numbers of hikers starting and actually finishing the AT have been on a 
>>>>steady decline?    What happened and why aren't more people hiking the AT?
>>>>
>>>>Just thought this may spark some interesting responses.
>>>>
>>>>Russ
>
>
>--
>
>Life is Good!!!
>Art Cloutman