[at-l] OT - fascinating information re the elections

[icw at esisnet.com (Clark Wright)]

Go to http://www.intrade.com for a fascinating study of the newest craze 
- actual, traded election results markets!  According to what little 
information I have, the market trading action on intrade.com has 
accurately predicted the past 4 or 5 presidential elections, and many, 
many senate races.  Unlike the usual polls, the intrade markets 
represent real people risking real money in an effort to make money by 
predicting who will win.  over the past year or so, Bush has maintained 
a healty lead, sometimes as much as 70/30.  After the debates, the Bush 
lead closed to about 53/46; this morning, Bush had a slight jump back up 
to 56/44; the most fascinating thing, however, is that in the past 
couple of hours, the Bush contracts have literally crashed - down about 
25 points.  Key state contracts like Iowa, Florida and Wisconsin have 
also experienced 20+ point Bush crashes . . . if the real money has any 
predictive value, this recent trading action indicates that John Kerry 
will become the next president of the United States - it will be very 
interesting to watch these contracts trade over the next several hours 
while also watching the more mainstream news.  You can access the 
intrade website by going to:

http://www.intrade.com

click on "markets" then go to the 2004 presidential race; once you get 
the list of state race markets, scroll down to get the actual contract 
markets on the presidential race electoral votes and popular vote; click 
on any particular contract to get a graph of its life history - note 
that the graphs only show closing prices, so the precipitous Bush drop 
in recent hours will not fully show, check the most recent bid/ask 
prices and the change from yesteday's close for that information - truly 
fascinating stuff!

thruthinker
[Clark Wright}