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[at-l] OT morfed from sox and other stuff
- Subject: [at-l] OT morfed from sox and other stuff
- From: rcli4 at comcast.net (rcli4@comcast.net)
- Date: Mon Nov 1 17:38:17 2004
Robert Kennedy is the Kerry choice for head of EPA. He is a stand up guy and good for the environment.
Republican Clyde :>))
-------------- Original message --------------
> Bror8588@aol.com wrote:
>
> >In a message dated 11/1/04 15:46:30 Eastern Standard Time, TrailR writes:
> >
> >
> >>I would like to know what brand of beer and coffee they both drink, and
> >>share a
> >>cup with them both. Maybe do a week long hike with them, see what they are
> >>like
> >>away from the cameras.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> > I am sure that if there were a larger
> >Hiker Population that Kerry would have put on his "hiker gear" to garner some
> >votes.
> >
>
> And, Bush wouldn't??
>
>
> > Not enough people to warrant that kind of effort. Bush does live on a
> >ranch and is an outdoorsy type but not for publicity
> >
>
> I suppose...if you consider dozing stuff away to put stuff like oil
> wells and the like to be 'outdoorsy'...(maybe that's why he doesn't want
> the pubicity?)
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> at-l mailing list
> at-l@backcountry.net
> http://mailman.hack.net/mailman/listinfo/at-l From stephensadams at hotmail.com Mon Nov 1 18:46:23 2004
From: stephensadams at hotmail.com (Steve Adams)
Date: Mon Nov 1 19:00:07 2004
Subject: [at-l] ELECTION NIGHT SCORE SHEET
Message-ID: <BAY18-F93TGJ2TUSzbA000002e0@hotmail.com>
ELECTION NIGHT SCORE SHEET - ANNOTATED - 2004
1) You should anticipate finding errors below.
2) There are three categories of electoral vote totals:
A) Best-case: A candidate wins every state in which he has a realistic
chance.
B) Expects: A candidate counts upon this number of votes for his margin
of victory.
C) Needs: A candidate needs this number of votes for a realistic chance
of winning.
3) Calculations are theoretical. Weeks may pass before we know who wins
some states.
4) The times, provided below, are Eastern Standard Time.
7 PM 58 ELECTORAL VOTES IN PLAY
Poll closures: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and
Virginia. Some polls in Florida and New Hampshire also close.
FLORIDA (27): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
The networks, learning from past mistakes, are not likely to say much about
early returns from Florida before 8 pm. [Refer to ?Florida? in the 8 PM
listing, below.]
GEORGIA (15): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
INDIANA (11): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
If it takes more than a few minutes for the networks to call Indiana or
Virginia for Bush, it may be a good omen for Kerry.
KENTUCKY (8): Bush ______. Kerry ______. Daniel Mongiardo Win /
Lose .
(The Senate Race) If Daniel Mongiardo keeps the numbers close, in early
returns from his Senate race, the Democrats have a chance to take over the
Senate.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (4): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
If, by now, Kerry is ahead in New Hampshire, it may be a long evening.
The networks, learning from past mistakes, are not likely to say much about
early returns from New Hampshire before 8 pm. [Refer to ?New Hampshire? in
the 8 PM listing, below.]
SOUTH CAROLINA (8): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
Inez Tenenbaum Win / Lose .
(The Senate Race) If Inez Tenenbaum keeps the numbers close, in early
returns from her Senate race, the Democrats have a chance to take over the
Senate.
VERMONT (3): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
VIRGINIA (13): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
If it takes more than a few minutes for the networks to call Indiana or
Virginia for Bush, it may be a good omen for Kerry.
Bush expects: 55
Bush needs: 55
Kerry best-case: 16
Kerry expects: 3
Kerry needs: 3
7:30 PM 83 ELECTORAL VOTES IN PLAY
Poll closures: Ohio and West Virginia.
OHIO (20): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
Results may trickle in slowly. The candidate who wins Ohio will breath more
easily. The candidate who loses in Ohio will have almost no margin for
error. Ohio will be a good index of where the presidential election stands.
If, between 8 pm and 9 pm, Kerry wins Ohio AND Florida, Bush will probably
need the Supreme Court in order to win. If Ohio and Florida remain
undecided, but Kerry wins Pennsylvania AND either New Hampshire or Maine,
the election isn?t over.
WEST VIRGINIA (5): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
Bush expects: 80
Bush needs: 75
Kerry best-case: 41
Kerry expects: 23
Kerry needs: 3
8 PM 260 ELECTORAL VOTES IN PLAY
Poll closures: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia,
Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi,
Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Tennessee.
ALABAMA (9): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
CONNECTICUT (7): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
DELAWARE (3): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (3): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
FLORIDA (27): Bush ______. Kerry ______. Betty Castor Win / Lose .
Either candidate can win the election without winning Florida. This will be
a more difficult loss for Bush, especially if he doesn't win in New
Hampshire. If, between 8 pm and 9 pm, Kerry wins Ohio AND Florida, Bush
will probably need the Supreme Court in order to win. If Ohio and Florida
remain undecided, but Kerry wins Pennsylvania AND either New Hampshire or
Maine, the election isn?t over. (The Senate Race) If Betty Castor loses
the Senate race in Florida, Republicans will probably retain control of the
Senate.
ILLINOIS (11): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
KANSAS (6): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
MAINE (4): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
If Ohio and Florida remain undecided, but Kerry wins Pennsylvania AND either
New Hampshire or Maine, the election isn?t over.
MARYLAND (10): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
MASSACHUSETTS (12): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
MISSISSIPPI (6): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
MISSOURI (11): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (4): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
Losing Florida will be a more difficult loss for Bush if he also loses in
New Hampshire. If Ohio and Florida remain undecided, but Kerry wins
Pennsylvania AND either New Hampshire or Maine, the election isn?t over. If
Bush wins New Hampshire, Florida becomes almost a "must" for Kerry.
NEW JERSEY (15): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
If Bush wins New Jersey, he will probably win the election.
OKLAHOMA (7): Bush ______. Kerry ______. Brad Carson Win / Lose .
(The Senate Race) If Rep. Brad Carson is unable to win the Senate race in
Oklahoma, Republicans will probably retain control of the Senate.
PENNSYLVANIA (21): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
If Kerry is down in Pennsylvania, it doesn?t look good for him. If Ohio and
Florida remain undecided, but Kerry wins Pennsylvania AND either New
Hampshire or Maine, the election isn?t over.
TENNESSEE (11): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
Bush best-case: 201
Bush expects: 161
Bush needs: 143
Kerry best-case: 179
Kerry expects: 150
Kerry needs: 91
8:30 PM 281 ELECTORAL VOTES IN PLAY
Poll closures: Arkansas and North Carolina.
ARKANSAS (6): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
If Kerry wins Arkansas or North Carolina, Bush has reason to sweat. If Bush
wins Arkansas (AND won Florida and Ohio earlier) the election is almost
decided.
NORTH CAROLINA (15): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
If Kerry wins North Carolina or Arkansas, Bush has reason to sweat. If
Kerry wins North Carolina, Virginia, AND West Virginia, he will be in good
shape.
Bush best-case: 222
Bush expects: 182
Bush needs: 164
Kerry best-case: 190
Kerry expects: 150
Kerry needs: 112
9 PM 431 ELECTORAL VOTES IN PLAY
Poll closures: Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New
Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
ARIZONA (10): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
If Kerry wins either Colorado or Arizona it doesn?t bode well for Bush.
COLORADO (9): Bush ______. Kerry ______. Ken Salazar Win / Lose .
If Kerry wins either Colorado or Arizona it won?t be good for Bush. If Bush
and Kerry are near what they expect - - 257 and 200, respectively - - watch
the referendum to amend Colorado's constitution. The Totals, below, are
based upon the assumption the Colorado referendum fails. (The Senate Race)
If Tom Daschle wins South Dakota AND Ken Salazar wins Colorado, Democrats
have a chance to gain control of the Senate. If either one loses, however,
the chances are slim.
LOUISIANA (9): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
MICHIGAN (17): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
If Kerry wins Michigan, yet the election is still undecided, watch Minnesota
and New Mexico.
MINNESOTA (10): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
If Kerry has a large early lead in Minnesota, things may go well for him in
Wisconsin. An even race in Minnesota would not be a good sign for Kerry.
NEW MEXICO (5): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
Bush is favored to win New Mexico; a win there may be decisive for this
election.
NEW YORK (31): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
RHODE ISLAND (4): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
SOUTH DAKOTA (3): Bush ______. Kerry ______. Tom Daschle Win /
Lose .
(The Senate Race) If Tom Daschle wins South Dakota AND Ken Salazar wins
Colorado, Democrats have a chance to gain control of the Senate. If either
one loses, however, the chances are slim.
TEXAS (34): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
WISCONSIN (10): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
WYOMING (3): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
Bush best-case: 372
Bush expects: 257
Bush needs: 239
Kerry best-case: 279
Kerry expects: 200
Kerry needs: 181
10 PM 451 ELECTORAL VOTES IN PLAY
Poll closures: Iowa, Montana, Nevada, and Utah.
IOWA (7): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
If the vote totals remain close, probably Bush or Kerry will have lost a
state which he expected to win. Iowa and Nevada become the last solid
opportunities for an upset. Kerry needs Iowa, unless he won BOTH Florida
and Ohio, or won a surprise (e.g. Missouri, or Arkansas) earlier.
MONTANA (3): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
NEVADA (5): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
If the vote totals remain close, probably Bush or Kerry will have lost a
state which he expected to win. Iowa and Nevada become the last solid
opportunities for an upset. Bush needs Nevada, unless he won BOTH Florida
and Ohio, or won a surprise (e.g. Michigan or Pennsylvania) earlier.
UTAH (5): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
If, by now, Bush hasn?t won 259 electoral votes, he will probably lose the
election.
If, by now, Kerry has won less than 193 electoral votes, he will probably
lose the election.
Bush best-case: 392
Bush expects: 276
Bush needs: 259
Kerry best-case: 291
Kerry expects: 206
Kerry needs: 193
11 PM 535 ELECTORAL VOTES IN PLAY: If we don?t know who the next
President will be by now, we'll be awaiting confirmation from uncontested
states. We may not know who the next President will be until December.
Poll closures: California, Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon and
Washington.
CALIFORNIA (55): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
HAWAII (4): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
IDAHO (4): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
NORTH DAKOTA (3): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
OREGON (7): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
Bush is favored to win Oregon and Washington. If Bush still needs them,
however, he's in trouble.
WASHINGTON (11): Bush ______. Kerry ______.
President Bush is favored to win Oregon and Washington. If Bush still needs
them, however, he's in trouble.
Bush best-case: 399
Bush expects: 283
Bush needs: 266 *
Kerry best-case: 368
Kerry expects: 294
Kerry needs: 270
* Bush needs 266 electoral votes to win. He will receive Alaska's three
votes around 1 am. If the election ends with a tie - - 269 electoral votes
each - - the election will be decided by the Republican-controlled House of
Representatives.
1 AM: We may need, if the election has remained close, to wait until 1 am
for Alaska to add its three electoral votes to Bush.
ALASKA (3): Bush ______. Kerry ______. Tony Knowles Win / Lose .
(The Senate Race) Will Tony Knowles win the Senate race in Alaska?
Original Sources: (1) The Green Papers: 2004 Poll Closing Times. (2)
Electoral Vote Predictor. Dan Aibel edited the sources and produced
?Contrapositive.? I adapted and modified ?Contrapositive.?
ALABAMA (9) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
ALASKA (3) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
ARIZONA (10) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
ARKANSAS (6) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
CALIFORNIA (55) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
COLORADO (9) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
CONNECTICUT (7) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
DELAWARE (3) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (3) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
FLORIDA (27) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
GEORGIA (15) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
HAWAII (4) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
IDAHO (4) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
ILLINOIS (11) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
INDIANA (11) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
IOWA (7) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
KANSAS (6) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
KENTUCKY (8) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
LOUISIANA (9) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
MAINE (4) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
MARYLAND (10) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
MASSACHUSETTS (12) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
MICHIGAN (17) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
MINNESOTA (10) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
MISSISSIPPI (6) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
MISSOURI (11) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
MONTANA (3) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
NEBRASKA (5) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
NEVADA (5) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (4) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
NEW JERSEY (15) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
NEW YORK (31) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
NEW MEXICO (5) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
NORTH DAKOTA (3) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
NORTH CAROLINA (15) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
OHIO (20) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
OKLAHOMA (7) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
OREGON (7) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
PENNSYLVANIA (21) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
RHODE ISLAND (4) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
SOUTH CAROLINA (8) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
SOUTH DAKOTA (3) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
VERMONT (3) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
TENNESSEE (11) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
TEXAS (34) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
UTAH (5) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
VIRGINIA (13) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
WASHINGTON (11) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
WEST VIRGINIA (5) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
WISCONSIN (10) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
WYOMING (3) Bush ______. Kerry ______.
_________________________________________________________________
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