[at-l] El Nino! (was Clothing for a thru)

[hiker at tempestdream.com (Hoplite)]

For you dataheads out there, my El Ni~o graph compiled from aussie gov't 
data follows by link.  It is a BIG graphic, 2000 x 400 pixels, so if you 
don't have broadband, its not a good idea. 

http://tempestdream.com/scratch/compiled.gif

Looks we're in for a neural/ slightly warmer winter/spring, as the 4-6 
year cycle's smack in the middle of a depression.  Insert numerous 
disclaimers on accuracy of forecasting here.  =)

NOAA's take:

A majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts indicate near 
neutral conditions (Ni?o 3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5?C and +0.5?C) 
for the remainder of 2003 and early 2004. However, over the past few 
months there has been a trend in the suite of forecasts towards somewhat 
warmer conditions, consistent with observed trends in SST anomalies. If 
the observed Nino 3.4 SST anomaly for October 2003 (+0.6?C) persists 
through November, the three-month (September-November) running mean 
value of this index would reach the NOAA threshold (+0.5?C) for El Ni?o. 
Thus, it is likely that borderline El Ni?o/ ENSO-neutral conditions will 
persist in the equatorial Pacific through the Northern Hemisphere winter 
of 2003-04. Further evolution of warm-episode conditions is possible if 
persistent enhanced equatorial convection (cloudiness and rainfall) 
develops in the vicinity of the date line (180?W), accompanied by 
weaker-than-average equatorial low-level easterly winds over the central 
and western Pacific.

Warm regards,
HopLite