[at-l] 2000 Plus Or Minus

[saunterer@jimbullard.org (saunterer@jimbullard.org)]

At 11:21 PM 3/24/02 -0500, Jim Lynch wrote:
>Interesting.  I wonder if its possible to collect data that would be
>statistically meaningful by asking trail workers to note who's out using
>the trail and some simple characteristics (day hiker, etc.).

Not necessarily.  It depends on their work habits.  If they have full time 
jobs and only go on weekends/holidays at set times of the year it will be 
accurate for only those periods.  I.E. - I used to do my Adirondack lean-to 
maintenance in mid-May, July and late September.  Initially I avoided 
holidays but went on weekends.  As the years went by, I had more time (my 
employer gives more vacation to long time employees) and/or other things 
interfered with my schedule, I found myself going during mid-week or on 
holidays and the hikers I encountered varied significantly.  On more than 
one occasion I was impressed that 80-90% of the folks I met were French 
Canadians.  The simple explanation was that it was a Canadian holiday and 
my lean-to was in the High Peaks which is the area that attracts the 
largest proportion of out-of-state hikers.  I'm sure if I had been hiking 
in the 5 Ponds Wilderness on those same days the percentage of Canadians 
would have been substantially less.  That area is a much longer drive for 
Canadians and not as well known.

About 2000-3000 hikers attempt a thru each year and only about 10% 
finish.  The percentage that are still on the trail by NJ/NY is less than 
50% (source "Appalachian Adventure" chart on page 20 using information 
provided by WF which shows 50% dropping out by VA and only 10% entering 
ME).  Assuming that 30% make it to NJ/NY and they were to constitute 30% of 
all people using the AT that year in that area that means that at most 900 
thru-hikers pass through those states and no more than 3000 people use the 
NJ/NY section of the AT throughout the year.  If the AT attracts people 
like the High Peaks do, I'll bet you could find many more than that on the 
NJ/NY sections AT on any nice summer day.

sAunTerer