[at-l] Water shortage news....

[RoksnRoots@aol.com (RoksnRoots@aol.com)]

    Water could be a key factor for 2002 through-hikers. As far as I know we 
have never seen a drought situation declared so early in the year. As I 
remember, 1999 had above average rain early on in spring then nothing. This 
year is lining up for possibly being much worse if things don't change soon. 
The worst spot for it to happen would be right where it currently is in the 
mid-Atlantic North East where the ridges are low in elevation and not much of 
an upland water table exists. 

     As far as my farmer's sense advice, I would say hold on for now. The 
reason being that weather tends to balance, so if an extreme dry stretch has 
been happening now probability dictates that somewhere a reverse will happen 
and rains will come. If that happens before the summer will be the question. 
The other reason is the fact that Nasa has detected an El Nino in the 
Pacific. If this blooms into a full-blown Pacific El Nino it will disrupt 
weather patterns in the eastern US. The bad news from this is the possibility 
that it will either makes things wetter or drier. Drier isn't good...

     Just hold on because while 1999 was parched 2000 was lush, wet, and 
green. As for reliable estimates, I would start expecting drought problems in 
Pennsylvania through Connecticut as the situation lingers. Those ridges 
depend on a good snowpack for recharging. So far, it looks like that hasn't 
come through. The west/east Pacific zonal flow is persisting continuing the 
mild temps. This has lessened precipitation, though the south has seen some 
heavy rains this year. R 'n R says logical odds increase for cold weather in 
late February and March starts when winter finally makes a charge. That is, 
if the zonal flow doesn't keep it mild all winter -which is also possible...

     


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