[at-l] AT Dry Spell - Forest Fire Danger

[RoksnRoots@aol.com (RoksnRoots@aol.com)]

I don't pretend to be a meteorologist, but from weather site observations I 
see we are now in what can officially be called a dry weather pattern, 
verging on drought, up the AT.

    I see from satellite pictures that very few cloud banks have lingered 
over the Trail for a while. This is unusual for Spring when we usually get 
the most rain. This is what I meant this winter by, "unless we see a severe 
drop-off in rain, the springs should be high through the usual dry areas in 
the mid-Atlantic from the record snows." I guess we saw the severe drop-off. 
I would suspect, though, that the springs will still have some water because 
snowpack run-off is usually independent of rainfall. 

      I have seen a notice that Harriman State Park has gone right to 5 of 5 
status of highest fire danger. The conditions are ripe for large-spread 
forest fires. These conditions are similar to what was seen in the late 80's 
and early 90's when Harriman had a rare tree crown fire that took many of the 
ridgeline blaze oaks on West Mountain.

   This took many years of maintenance to repair due to the need to carry up 
4 by 4 pressure-treated posts to compensate for the lack of blazes. Then the 
succession forest of black birch, aspen, fireweed, and maple choked the 
treadway with flourishing growth on the ash fertilizer and sun-exposed forest 
floor. We had to do an emergency trail clearing in mid-summer on a stretch 
that was normally wide-open with little care for growth. 

     I guess this is what resulted from the extraordinarily warm water that 
was detected to be pooling in the western pacific this spring. My instincts 
say this warm weather is premature and will break, but if it doesn't, we are 
in line for a whopping drought worse than what happened in 1999. Every day 
without rain leads further and further towards that possibility. So, AT 
hikers should be aware and plan for water diversions.

     At this point hikers must assume a responsibility of extreme care and 
avoid all open flames (except cautious stove use). AT through-hikers were 
given special exemption to the hiking ban of recent times in closed Trail 
sections in State Parks. This was an agreement worked out with the local 
authority by the clubs in order to allow one-time area visiting 
through-hikers to continue their hike and see the area. Otherwise, the 
official route becomes a paved road through the park. It was agreed to only 
because the rangers believed through-hikers to be a step above the public in 
fire safety awareness. Needless to say, it will take only one thoughtless 
through-hiker to destroy what took years to gain in trust with these 
authorities. This is not a joke, or something to be taken lightly, and 
through-hikers have to look after each other to keep the goofers from messing 
it up for everyone.