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[at-l] Fw: [GO-chat] Mid-Latitude Aurora Alert (fwd)



Hey kids.  Pooh's back.  Thought this might be of some interest to y'all
(and if anyone can translate it into English, that would be great).  If this
has already been posted to the list, my apologies ... I've been trapped
under moving boxes for the past few weeks!

:)

>
>                           Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
>                             http://www.spacew.com
>
>                           Valid: 08 and 09 June 2000
>
>                  * Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WARNING *
>                    * Low Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH *
>
>      A potentially significant solar coronal mass ejection
> is currently in-transit toward the Earth. Impact of this
> disturbance is expected during the mid to late UTC hours of
> 08 June. Its arrival is expected to herald an intensification
> of auroral activity. Minor to major auroral storming may be
> observed over possible widespread middle (and possibly some
> dark-sky low) latitude locations on the evenings of 08
> and/or 09 June. Heaviest emphasis is currently placed on
> 09 June, although this will depend to a large extent on
> precisely _when_ the disturbance impacts.
>
>      There is no question that this disturbance will impact
> the Earth. The question is how intense the resulting auroral
> activity might become. This is a question which ultimately
> will not be answerable until after the disturbance reaches
> the vicinity of the Earth where spacecraft can probe the
> interior of the disturbance upstream of the Earth. From that
> information, we will be able to determine much more accurately
> how the disturbance should
> progress.
>
>      We have appended below the official release of the
> middle latitude auroral activity warning, which includes
> roughly estimated boundaries for observing activity. However,
> keep in mind that these are estimates only based on anticipated
> peak auroral storm levels. Whether your local region experiences
> peak storm conditions depends in a large measure on factors beyond
> anyones control (timing of arrival, dimensions of the disturbance
> impacting the Earth, characteristics of the solar wind within the
> disturbance, and much more).
>
>      This is a potentially significant disturbance and should
> be treated seriously by those who would like to observe auroral
> activity. Plan your most intensive observing sessions after the
> moon sets and prior to local twilight conditions (but don't
> necessarily limit your observations to those times or you may
> miss the most intense phases of activity). For this event, the moon
> will set between 2 and 3 am local time, providing optimally dark
> skies in the hour or two prior to moonset and for the next few
> hours prior to sunrise.
>
>      Avoid city lights. Get away to a rural location where city
> or other lights minimally pollute the northern horizon of the sky
> (or southern horizon if you live in the southern hemisphere).
>
>      Take along a camera with a tripod. During your observing
> session, take a few extended duration exposures of the horizon,
> even if you don't see anything with your eyes. You may be surprised
> what shows up on film.     Before you go out, check the Internet for
> possible signs of
> activity.  Ground-based reports from other individuals around the
> world are available at: http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.html.
> Reports of auroral activity there can provide you with information
> on the latitudinal extent of auroral activity visibility. Current
> auroral activity information can also be obtained at:
> http://www.spacew.com/www/aurora.html. Other sites of interest
> include the Canadian Space Agency's near-realtime aurora plot at:
> http://www.dan.sp-agency.ca/www/globe/rtoval.htm, their
> photometric plots at: http://www.sp-agency.ca/www_forms/rt_mpa.htm,
> and their all-sky imager at:
> http://www.sp-agency.ca/www_forms/rt_asi.htm.
>
>      The official middle latitude auroral activity warning, issued at
> 07:05 UTC on 07 June is included below:
>
>
> VALID BEGINNING AT: 12:00 UTC 08 JUNE
> VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 10 JUNE
>
>     HIGH RISK PERIOD: 08 - 09 JUNE (UTC DAYS)
> MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 08 - 10 JUNE
>
> PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 12, 35, 60, 30 (07 JUNE - 10 JUNE)
>
> POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE TO
> HIGH
>
> POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
>                                     MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS
>
> ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: AFTER APPROX. 2 AM LOCAL TIME
>
> EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW-MODERATE, BECOMING NIL AFTER 2-3 AM
> LOCAL
>
> OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD
>
> AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
> FROM...
>
>      NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO UTAH TO COLORADO TO
> NORTHERN
>      KANSAS TO MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.
>
> ** End of AstroAlert **
>
>
>
>
>
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